I disagree. 'Shots on goal' come in all different shapes and sizes. From the absolute screamer that no goalkeeper on earth would save, right through to a scuffed shot dribbling harmlessly to the goalkeeper. The idea that both of these extremes (if deliberately handled, stopping the shot) would automatically result in red cards seems ridiculous to me. Therefore, as soon as we accept the possibility that a shot on goal might not be a red card, then we are simply debating at what level of probability of the goal being scored it tips over to Red. For me, if the GK is unlikely to save it, then it would feel like a Red