I'm genuinely surprised to see you say that, I think if anything they've gone the other way!I thought last night's intercourse from Boris was quite positive. A change in tone from soundbite to a sensible level of detail
Much more clarification to come today, but the door is conspicuously ajar for sport's return. Many many more hoops to negotiate before that comes to fruition however
Why do you say that, the rolling seven day average is falling nicelyThe numbers for the UK look bleak
It's certianly going in the right direction (finally), but I think if you compare it to the other countries that are only just lifting restrictions (France, Spain, Germany last week), you can see we're still way higher. If the number of daily deaths is higher, we can assume the number of infected (and more importantly, infectious) people is still high, therefore we're still at risk of a double-dip if we start mingling and raising the R-number too fast.Why do you say that, the rolling seven day average is falling nicely
Aye, but buggar all's changing for a bit yet.....It's certianly going in the right direction (finally), but I think if you compare it to the other countries that are only just lifting restrictions (France, Spain, Germany last week), you can see we're still way higher. If the number of daily deaths is higher, we can assume the number of infected (and more importantly, infectious) people is still high, therefore we're still at risk of a double-dip if we start mingling and raising the R-number too fast.
The most obvious conclusion is that average is falling because what we've been doing is working. Any decision to change the current process has to be based on the conclusion that factors other than lockdown are now what's limiting the rate of infection - and I see absolutely no reason to yet think that's the case.
Isn't it? We've already changed from "Stay Home" to "Stay Alert". Now, I'll be the first to admit that I don't know what that actually means, but that doesn't change the fact that I'm still very pessimistic about any changes at this point, however symbolic or empty those changes might end up being.Aye, but buggar all's changing for a bit yet.....
Globally (of those with a reasonable number of infections), only Belgium fare worse per capitaWhy do you say that, the rolling seven day average is falling nicely
I hope the virus didn't sneak into my house while I was sleeping. It's difficult to stay alert all the time.I'm genuinely surprised to see you say that, I think if anything they've gone the other way!
"Stay Home" is simple, easy to understand and exactly what we should be doing if possible.
"Stay Alert" is meaningless (how can you possibly keep alert for a microscopic virus?), instructions on what's changed have been misleading and conflicting, and personally, I still think any change has come too early and is motivated mostly by not wanting to be seen as too far behind Germany/France rather than because the data suggests now is the time to relax restrictions.
Globally (of those with a reasonable number of infections), only Belgium fare worse per capita
The Govt. have eased things a little nevertheless (which has got many in a flap as they can't cope with being 'alert')
Boris knows we're not in the best shape, but he clearly said we're fighting on two fronts. An impossible situation, in which everyone has an opinion;
or criticism, should I say
Whilst we could deduce the safety of sitting alone in a park, we've seen that many in Society are unable to use common sense to maintain complianceThe previous lockdown rules were nonsensical in places. What was the point of banning people from sitting in the middle of a park on their own at the same time as they could go and join huge queues at B&Q and be in much closer proximity to others.
They really need the antibody test quickly. I remain convinced that a significant percentage of the population will have already had it, especially in London. Right up until lock down people were crammed onto tubes and trains, in busy offices, in packed post-work pubs and bars, and all at a time that the R was incredibly high. I'm 95% sure that I had it in mid-March, but didn't think anything of it as the symptoms hadn't been mentioned at that time, and at least five of the people I sit close to in the office are convinced they have had it. We also had a team weekend away to Liverpool in mid-March, just after the Liverpool vs Atletico game that is thought to have contributed massively to the spread there.
Looking at photos of the tube in London today I do wonder if either the government have the same view as me, or they are going back to the herd immunity approach. Telling people to go back to work with just 12 hours notice, knowing that workplaces and transport providers wouldn't be able to react in that time, seems a bit fishy to me.
The problem isn't with allowing one person to sit on their own in a park, it's that if you allow one person to do it, you can't then justify saying no to the next person, or the person after that and so on until the park is full. And we also don't know enough about the virus to know how dangerous it would then be if an hour later someone else came along and sat in the same spot - is the grass contaminated? Literally no one knows, so why not all do our park to minimise risks? Although as you say, that is almost immediately contradicted by allowing DIY shops to stay open!The previous lockdown rules were nonsensical in places. What was the point of banning people from sitting in the middle of a park on their own at the same time as they could go and join huge queues at B&Q and be in much closer proximity to others.
They really need the antibody test quickly. I remain convinced that a significant percentage of the population will have already had it, especially in London. Right up until lock down people were crammed onto tubes and trains, in busy offices, in packed post-work pubs and bars, and all at a time that the R was incredibly high. I'm 95% sure that I had it in mid-March, but didn't think anything of it as the symptoms hadn't been mentioned at that time, and at least five of the people I sit close to in the office are convinced they have had it. We also had a team weekend away to Liverpool in mid-March, just after the Liverpool vs Atletico game that is thought to have contributed massively to the spread there.
Looking at photos of the tube in London today I do wonder if either the government have the same view as me, or they are going back to the herd immunity approach. Telling people to go back to work with just 12 hours notice, knowing that workplaces and transport providers wouldn't be able to react in that time, seems a bit fishy to me.