Level 6 Referee
Not sure I agree with your analogy. Insurance is always a 'bad bet', that's why the Insurance Companies make money. It's just that most people can't afford the cost should the worst come to the worst (and therefore MUST take the 'bad bet' and pay the premium). As referees, this is not the same as being thorough with the 'minor' considerations. Any ref who doesn't bother to insure against the little things (good bets), will soon discover the inevitability of consequential bigger problemsI have been getting $600 annual insurance for my car 10 years in row now, cost me $6000 and I haven't got a single $ back. But you know what I'll get it again next year because if I have an accident with a $50K damage bill, I wont have to pay anything. Doing the right thing at a PK is a little short term pain but it covers your a$$ for that one time (next game or 10 years down the track) when the ball is till on the move after a rebound and you have not wrongly stopped a defender from saving it.
On a separate note, I'll leave this here. Goal or no goal? (ignore the rest of the WTF stuff)
Whilst the ref in the township clip seems to be indicating a goal, maybe he ought to have thought about the proximity of the spectators!